One of the most pressing issues currently facing Afghanistan is the difficult economic transition set to occur at the end of 2014. Although security is the concern that grabs headlines, it’s the economy, and the ability of the Afghan government to afford itself, that will determine the long-term success of the Afghan state. Sadly, it is highly unlikely that the Afghan government will be able to domestically source revenue to cover the military and security expenses it faces, let alone finance development and the social safety net, thus far provided largely by NGOs and donors nations, that the population has come to expect.
Although significant funding has been committed by donor nations it falls well short of the $10 billion a year through 2025 that President Hamid Karzai asked for. The $10 billion request represents significant figure for foreign donors, between 61% and 78% of GDP depending on which GDP estimates are used. The $4 billion committed by the international community at the 2012 Tokyo Donors Conference is not even a sure thing, as donor fatigue and historic failures to live up to development aid commitments are likely. This means, in the best-case scenario, that the government of Afghanistan would face a budget shortfall of at least $6 billion a year starting in 2014, but odds are it will be far greater.
Afghanistan is staring at a difficult future, made all the more so by the fact that it is impossible to judge what past vast sums of international development and security money have accomplished, making requests for more especially problematic. The United States and Europe are under significant pressure at home to cut military and civil spending, and even donors that are not under pressure have generally failed to meet aid commitments to Afghanistan. Afghanistan must prepare now for a future in which the government budget is significantly diminished, as the ongoing troop reductions preface even more dramatic decreases in development assistance.