The Iraq and Afghanistan Combat Veteran and the Future of American Foreign Policy
Daniel Wagner
Daniel Wagner is CEO of Country Risk Solutions, a cross-border risk consulting firm based in Connecticut, and Director of Global Strategy with the PRS Group. He has a quarter century of experience managing country risk, is an authority on political risk insurance (PRI) and analysis, and has 15 years of underwriting experience with four prestigious organizations (AIG, the Asian Development Bank, GE, and the World Bank Group). Daniel wrote the definitive book on PRI and has published hundreds of articles on risk management and current affairs. His new book, Managing Country Risk, was published in February 2012. He is a non-resident scholar with the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, and a regular contributor to foreignpolicyjournal.com, the Huffington Post and International Risk Management Institute. His editorials have been published in such notable newspapers as the International Herald Tribune and the Wall Street Journal. He holds master’s degrees in International Relations from the University of Chicago and in International Management from The American Graduate School of International Management (Thunderbird).
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What Next in Greece?
May 21, 2012 by Daniel Wagner
The disintegration of Greece’s political status quo has shaken Greek society – and the political and administrative elite – to their core. The new elections that will be held on June 17th will be the first to be conducted in several decades without a bipolar political system in place – at least not the one we have come to know since 1974. The ‘clientele’ system is giving way to a more individualized and complicated approach, more a function of realism and ideology than patronage.
The Resumption of Business as Usual Between Pakistan and the U.S.
May 17, 2012 by Daniel Wagner
The bilateral relationship between Pakistan and the U.S. is one of the most important and contentious in the world. Illustrating its complexity, Pakistan is expected to shortly announce that it is reopening Afghan supply lines through its border, which were closed following the NATO raid last year that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers.
Sudan’s Oil War
May 7, 2012 by Daniel Wagner
Since the January 2011 referendum vote for independence and subsequent separation the following July, militia violence has been increasing across the borderlands. Hostilities were initiated by Sudan as a means of destabilizing the newly formed South Sudanese government. The situation continued to escalate with both sides funding and arming paramilitaries to conduct cross-border raids.
The Talented Mr. Chen
May 5, 2012 by Daniel Wagner
Chen Guangcheng’s saga says a lot about the evolution in Chinese political culture currently under way as well as about the maturing relationship between China and the U.S. Not long ago, this ‘crisis’ could have severely impacted bilateral relations between the two countries; today, it appears to be a minor irritant, based on a spirit of compromise and common sense that has apparently prevailed.
What Syria is Teaching the West
April 22, 2012 by Daniel Wagner
It should come as little surprise to anyone that the fragile cease-fire in Syria has failed and is evidence that – contrary to what many pundits contend – the tide continues to be on Mr. Assad’s side, given the time that has passed, the fractured nature of the opposition, and the bungled manner in which the West has addressed the subject. As Syria demonstrates, with each passing month the Arab Awakening evolves in new and unexpected ways.
Income Inequality and the Rise of European Separatist Movements
April 19, 2012 by Daniel Wagner
Separatist movements typically flourish during times of economic or political distress. While in the recent past separatism has been associated most with emerging or failed states and linked with armed conflict and insurgencies, the west’s economic dislocation and the ‘rise of the rest’ has coincided with a surge in political movements and a desire for autonomy and independence – not only among violence-prone regions of the world, but among the strongest of emerging states, and the EU.
U.S. Expectations Must Change in the Middle East
April 11, 2012 by Daniel Wagner
News that the proposed Syrian ceasefire has fallen apart, that the Muslim Brotherhood has put forth a candidate for the presidency in Egypt, that challenges to the new government in Tunisia have already arisen, that there remains a risk of civil war in Libya, and that there is a good chance Israel may unilaterally bomb Iran later this year should not be much of a surprise to those Middle East foreign policy pundits who mix a good dose of realism in with any grand illusions about what the future holds for the region.
Do Country Acronyms Have a Meaningful Place in a Dynamic World?
March 10, 2012 by Daniel Wagner
When Goldman Sachs first coined the term “BRICs” in 2001, it did so on the assumption that these four countries were going to heavily influence the direction of the global economy. It turned out that China was much more influential than any of the other three, and that Brazil well underperformed the others based on its decade-long average GDP growth rate of approximately 3.5%.
Netanyahu’s and Obama’s Unsavory Choices on Iran
March 8, 2012 by Daniel Wagner
Whether Iran’s goal is ultimately to produce a nuclear weapon is unknown, but as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said last weekend during his meetings in Washington, if is looks, walks and talks like a duck, it is usually a duck. He also asked a simple question – Would Iran be producing its missile program simply to place medical isotopes on top of their missiles? At least one world leader is asking the right questions and looking this issue squarely in the face.
Is Putin Capable of Crafting a Pragmatic Foreign Policy?
February 26, 2012 by Daniel Wagner
The soon to be re-elected president of Russia, Vladimir Putin’s glorious ‘great power pragmatism’ will quickly be put to the test. Russia finds itself in the center of the convulsing Eurasian landscape and has also placed itself at the heart of the Iran and Syrian quagmires.
Now Is Not the Time for Intervention In Syria
February 20, 2012 by Daniel Wagner
As pressure mounts on foreign powers to consider intervening militarily in Syria, analogies are being drawn between what NATO accomplished in Libya and whether something comparable may be possible in Syria. Military intervention would perhaps make the West feel better — knowing that it attempted to do something concrete to end the bloodshed — but it is unlikely to be successful for several reasons.
Iranian Attack on the US Unlikely
February 1, 2012 by Daniel Wagner
US intelligence officials have recently warned that Iran may attempt to conduct attacks on the US mainland in retaliation for what is presumed to be ongoing US and Israeli covert efforts to thwart Iranian nuclear ambitions. Computer viruses have infected Iran’s nuclear laboratories, aerial drones have violated its airspace, and several of its nuclear scientists have been assassinated.
What Next for North Korea?
December 19, 2011 by Daniel Wagner
It comes as no surprise that Kim Jong Il died at a relatively young age of a heart attack over the weekend. Having suffered from ill health for a number of years (cancer and, more recently, a stroke), he was well known for his pleasurable excesses, and his father, Kim Il Sung, also died of a heart attack. Kim Jong Il knew his end was near, which prompted him to catapult his youngest son — Kim Jong Un — believed to be just 28 years old, as his named successor.
Why Leaving Syria Alone Is A Good Idea
December 7, 2011 by Daniel Wagner
Last week’s combined victory by the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists in the first phase of elections in Egypt should have sent a shudder down the spine of every government opposed to the rise of radical Islam.
India’s Courage Deficit
November 30, 2011 by Daniel Wagner
Many in the West may not realize it, but India is in the middle of what is shaping up to be a severe economic crisis. The rupee hit an all time low of more than 52 to the U.S. dollar this past week, is down 17% this year, and declined more than 7 percent just this month. That is even lower than during the financial crisis of 2009. India’s stock exchange, the Sensex, has lost more than a third of its value in dollar terms this year and now has the dubious distinction of being Asia’s worst performing stock exchange.
