Greece: A Default is a Better Outcome than the Deal on Offer

February 13, 2012 by Marshall Auerback

Managing Director Christine Lagarde with Robert Zoellick. Simone D. McCourtie/IMF

Pick your poison. In the words of Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, the choice facing Greece today in the wake of its deal with the so-called “Troika” (the ECB, IMF, and EU) is “to choose between difficult decisions and decisions even more difficult. We unfortunately have to choose between sacrifice and even greater sacrifices in incomparably more dearly.”

Of course, Venizelos implied that failure to accept the latest offer by the Troika is the lesser of two sacrifices.  And the markets appeared to agree, selling off on news that the deal struck between the two parties was coming unstuck after weeks of building up expectations of an imminent conclusion.  In our view, the market’s judgment is wrong: an outright default might ultimately prove the better tonic for both Greece and the euro zone.

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