The Arab Spring in an Egyptian Summer: The Bumpy Road to Democracy

Egyptian Protesters. Source: The Morningside Post

As on previous trips to Egypt, this summer I frequently heard about the love affair between Egyptians and their military. So I felt a bit uneasy about the protestors’ plan to march from Tahrir Square to military headquarters to express their demands to Egypt’s current rulers. Although I wasn’t going to write about the march for the English edition of Al-Masry Al-Youm newspaper, where I was interning, I attended such events to witness Egypt’s transition to democracy. But because I was in the middle of running overdue errands, I didn’t attend the march. Instead, I anxiously followed events via the protestors’ tweets.

As darkness fell and the protestors reached military headquarters, they found themselves trapped. A group of community members, military sympathizers, and “thugs” attacked them with Molotov cocktails, bricks, bottles, sticks, and knives.

Egypt’s military police and state security first merely watched, then joined in by shooting into the air and hurling tear gas at the protestors. Hundreds were injured, and one protestor eventually died of his injuries. Hospitals in the area refused to admit the injured protestors.

“It’s a WAR here,” one protestor tweeted.

As Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain experience their varied stages of revolution, the region and the global community look to Egypt, long-considered the leader of the Arab and Muslim worlds, to exemplify a successful transition from an autocratic, corrupt, security state to a functional democracy.

However, on that night of July 23rd, it became clear that even without Mubarak, the road to a democratic Egypt would not only be turbulent at times, but that powerful obstacles like Egypt’s military apparatus still carry great public support.

Egyptians and their Military

Due to mandatory conscription, every Egyptian family has some connection to the military. Husbands, fathers, sons, and brothers have served. Egypt’s last major conflict with Israel, the October 1973 War, which Egyptians consider a victory, saw the military bring some measure of dignity to the country. The war eventually led to Israel’s concession of the Sinai peninsula, which Israel had captured during the 1967 Six Day War. Besides this, Egyptians are certain that the military was behind them in their successful effort to oust Hosni Mubarak.

After Mubarak’s fall, protestors demanded action on the part of the now-ruling military. Protestors wanted an end to the decades-long emergency law that sanctioned arbitrary arrest, incarceration, and torture; an end to military trials against civilians; prompt legal action against Mubarak and state entities accused of killing protestors earlier this year; and compensation to the families of those killed during the revolution, called “martyrs” in Egypt. As the protestors took a more confrontational approach, Egyptians who love their military and are eager to return to some sense of normalcy in the face of a suffering economy and decreased security began to perceive the protestors as unpatriotic agitators.

Besides political interest, Egypt’s military has great economic interest in fomenting this line of thinking.

Over the years, the military has become deeply entrenched in Egypt’s economy through its government connections. It is also the major beneficiary of the US’s $1.5 billion a year in aid money. With such power at stake, the military, through public statements issued this summer, fed into the idea that protestors were enemies of the state, perhaps even foreign agents. Therefore it was not a great surprise that when the military violently dispersed this summer’s Tahrir Square sit-in, community members participated in the expulsion.

Xenophobia and Mediaphobia

Foreigners as well as “westernized” Egyptians (including many working in the media) were frequently targeted by vigilantes of various political persuasions for their potential to be enemies of the state.

One day while in Tahrir Square, I saw a foreign media organization setting up its video equipment on the balcony of a hotel. Some young men around me spotted the activity, and one of them called for action. Immediately, about fifty young men with sticks and pipes rushed into the building’s lobby to stop the crew from completing its work. Watching the threat from above, the crew disappeared from the balcony with its equipment. Soon after, the young men who decided they were in charge of the square prohibited anyone from taking pictures or filming events, threatening to break or confiscate cameras.

The military not only fed into the frenzy, but also engaged in it. Journalists and bloggers were arrested and tried for insulting the military, an illegal act in Egypt.

The term “spy” eventually became something of a joke and general insult. “Inta gasus!” or “You are a spy!” a woman on my train home one evening yelled at a young man who had upset her. Most people smiled or laughed at the epithet. But in Tahrir Square, being accused of being a spy could get you kicked out, taken to the square’s security personnel, or to the police. Ilan Grapel, a US and Israeli citizen originally from Queens, New York, was arrested in June on spy charges. Grapel had posted pictures of himself in Tahrir Square during the January 25 Revolution on the internet. Grapel remains in Egyptian custody.

This fear of subversives, along with security threats in Sinai and border incidents with Israel feed into the growing belief that a powerful and extended military is necessary. And the aversion to negative press coverage, which leads to acts against journalists and bloggers, threatens the free press that is essential to a functioning democracy.

A New Constitution

Egypt’s old constitution sanctioned Mubarak’s absolute grip on the state, so a new constitution will need to be written to institutionalize democracy.

In a national referendum held in March, Egyptians overwhelmingly voted to postpone the writing of a new constitution until after this fall’s parliamentary elections. With various liberal parties poised to compete against the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party, it is clear that the well-established and tightly-run Islamic organization, which appeals to Egypt’s religious majority, will dominate at the polls. This means that the party will have a powerful hand in writing the new constitution.

Egyptians do not currently agree on constitutional guidelines to ensure a democratic and secular state. Given the political environment, the potential for a new constitution and subsequent political system being based largely on religious text and its interpretation is a real possibility.

That being said, even Muslim Egyptians told me that they wanted a liberal, secular state. I went further and asked if there is a chance that Egypt might become another Iran or Saudi Arabia. They responded that this would be a terrible development, and that the majority of Egyptians wouldn’t accept it. Except for the Salafis who I heard chanting for an Islamic state under sharia law, I got the sense that Egyptians of all walks of life are looking for democracy in the most comprehensive sense of the word.

Next Steps

Unfortunately, just this past week Egypt’s military rulers extended the emergency law until next summer. And according to news reports, the military alongside state security expelled and arrested people at a downtown Cairo café known for its liberal character.

Acts like these have yet to result in diplomatic condemnation by the international community.

Constitutional guidelines established now would go a long way in helping set up a functional democracy in Egypt. The military though, is keen to establish a guideline allowing it to intervene if it perceives that the secular nature of the new Egypt is under threat. A rule giving the military overarching political veto power, possibly sanctioning future coups, should be considered as much a potential threat to the anticipated civil state as the Islamizing forces it would presumably be countering. Egyptians should not have to choose between a military state and a religious state.

Also, without merging the many liberal parties now doomed to share the liberal vote, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party stands to gain tremendously in November, and will consequently influence the new constitution greatly.

Egyptians have fought hard for their seemingly impossible revolution. Mubarak’s trial was unimaginable only months ago. Egyptians remain optimistic that they will lead the Arab world in establishing a functional democracy. But as this summer has shown, there is a long and bumpy road ahead. For now, protestors will need to get the bulk of the Egyptian people to see that Egypt’s all-powerful and beloved military may be the biggest roadblock to a democratic Egypt.

The Morningside Post (www.themorningsidepost.com)